A lot happened on the ATP Tour during the 2024 season. Tennis has seen an eventful year, from players winning their first titles to a pair cementing their control over the slams to legends bidding farewell to the sport. What I am however particularly interested in and going to talk about will be based on these players:
- Alexander Zverev
- Daniil Medvedev
- Novak Djokovic
- The Big-2 (aka Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz)
- Predictions for 2025
Yes, in that particular order. I have some interesting thoughts about this group of players and how they have played and panned out over 2024.
Alexander Zverev
Zverev has dumped that easy-going tennis personality around himself. He seems more intent, active, and focused than ever on trying to win the final silverware that has remained out of his grasp: a grand slam title.
He has won ATP 250s, 500s, and Masters 1000s, and is an Olympic champion. He has played 2 grand slam finals. Worthy of being one of the great players of the modern era. I don’t think he wants to appear in the history books like that. And it is correct of him to think so. For somebody like Zverev who has so few holes in his game and is locked in most of the time, a grand slam title would be a fitting achievement.
The problem is, that Zverev has always had to battle the big boys deep into the slams. But nobody promised him that he would not face the top 5 and top 10s at slams. However much of his failures deep into slams can be attributed to his attitude. And I don’t mean he has a negative attitude.
Take for example: the US Open Semifinal in 2021. Djokovic tied with Zverev 4-6, 6-2, 6-4, 4-6. The latter being the younger contender, the fresher, and showing intent during the 4th set. Having a realistic chance to topple Djokovic’s hopes of a calendar slam and enter the final.
The deciding set read: 6-2 Djokovic. It was a horrible display of mental fortitude against somebody like Djokovic who was more gassed than Zverev at that point in time. Zverev failed to capitalize on the opportunity and failed under the pressure to convert the “chance” he believed he had. (Djokovic ultimately was gassed enough after going 5 sets against Zverev that he lost 0-3 to Medvedev in the final.)
Another example: Zverev vs Carlos Alcaraz, Roland Garros 2024. Zverev led everyone’s favorite 3-6, 6-2, 7-5. Alcaraz was the fan and expert’s pick to win but if there was one guy in the whole draw who could take out Alcaraz, it was Zverev. And he seemed to realize it. That he had a “chance.”
Leading Alcaraz 2-1 in the final would give him enough leeway to slow the match down and take the chances as they come without taking risks.
The final two sets: 1-6, 2-6. It was a disaster. Absolutely no fight at all. Alcaraz was able to find the gap in Zverev’s baseline just enough to force winners and catch him mentally lacking. Zverev was tuned out of the match, not able to find his pinpoint serves and forcing Alcaraz to commit errors he had done quite comfortably for the previous 2 sets. Going up 2-1 against the favorite meant, he had a “chance,” and he buckled under pressure.
One more recent example that doesn’t need any more explaining because as you may guess, ended in the same fashion. Daniil Medvedev vs Zverev, Australian Open Semifinal 2024: 5–7, 3–6, 7–6, 7–6, 6–3.
Zverev consistently clocked great results on the Tour in 2024: won 2 ATP Masters 1000 titles (Rome and Paris) and went deep at multiple slams: a semifinal and a final at AO and Roland Garros respectively and R16 at Wimbledon and a quarterfinal at US Open (defeated by Taylor Fritz in both instances who has become famous for being “Zverev’s kryptonite”; Fritz leads their H2H 7-5, with 4 of those wins coming in 2024 alone) and a semifinal at the year ending Nitto ATP Finals where he lost to, yes you guessed it right, Taylor Fritz.
Zverev is 27 years old and is evidently at his peak physical capabilities. Not being able to crack the moment and assert dominance at slams would now mean that he will be closer with every passing grand slam loss to going down in the history books without a slam.
2025 should be the year Alexander Zverev rises to his peak potential and captures a slam. Yes Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are all over the tour right now and Taylor Fritz seems to have found a way to pocket him every time they play but if somebody told me that Zverev is any less a player than those mentioned above, you can be sure that I would laugh. He is in the same league as Sinner and Alcaraz. It may sound cocky, but that is the truth.
2025: Alexander Zverev. I am watching.
Daniil Medvedev
Daniil Medvedev is the player I wanted Zverev to transition to. In terms of success at the grand slams that is to say. But 2024 was the worst year for Medvedev in terms of success on the tour for as long as I have seen him play. What started as a promising year ended in a disaster.
Medvedev began the year on a strong note by playing the final at the Australian Open 2024. However, it was painful to see him lose out on a grand slam victory in Australia to Sinner in the same fashion to which he lost to Rafael Nadal in 2022. This year however it was certain that Medvedev was not the favorite to win the final in Melbourne.
To see him go 2 sets to love up against Sinner, however, was a surprise that wasn’t on my bingo card for that match. Ultimately though, playing 2 consecutive 5-setters on the way to the finals against quality players such as Zverev (in the semifinal where Medvedev came back from 2 sets down) and Hubi Hurkacz meant that he was out of gas by the end of 2nd set and Sinner started to toy with Medvedev’s baseline tennis to assert dominance.
Medvedev went on to play just 1 additional final all year at the Indian Wells Masters 1000 where he lost to Carlos Alcaraz. Apart from these finals, Medvedev had a horror show. He played a few semifinals and looked to be back in form at places but ultimately was not able to crack his opponents deep into the tournaments this year. Alcaraz in particular was too big an opponent for Medvedev to solve and lost to him 3 times this year, 2 semifinals and a final. Thus his bad run of form against Sinner and Alcaraz which started back in March 2023 continued this year.
I have a theory for the lack of results for Medvedev on the tour since the turn of 2024. Daniil is a baseliner who feels comfortable standing deep in his return position and with long rallies. Over the years he has choked his opponents with extensive baselining that is tiring to witness, let alone play. At the peak of his form, Medvedev regularly baited his opponents into submission by dragging them into long rallies which usually ended up with unforced errors or winners in the open court.
For long, he relied on his baseline tennis for results. However come 2023 and with the rise of aggressive baseliners such as Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz, Medvedev has had to endure a tough period of extensive failures against the two. One of the generally accepted reasons for his lack of wins against the two mentioned players is Medvedev’s over-reliance on his serve and baseline tennis. Over time and with age, baselining for a consistent duration of time has created physical dents in his tennis. Medvedev is 28 years old and cannot rely on his baseline tennis to overpower opponents with an increasingly aggressive style of play.
Another reason is his deep return positions. Alcaraz initially and now several players on tour have started to use this play by Medvedev to their advantage by bailing themselves out of long rallies through drop shots; and since Medvedev’s deep return position usually translates to deep baseline tennis, he often chokes on trying to return drop shots.
One adjustment Medvedev made in his tennis was to come closer to the baseline to return serves, but also effectively utilizing drop shots and aggressive serve-volley and plus-one shot combinations in his own game. This combo was the reason for his quick 2-0 lead against Jannik Sinner in the AO 2024 final. But was the adjustment made due to the style of his opponent or due to his fatigue, we will never know. I side with the latter because coming into the finals, it was certain that Sinner was the younger and fresher of the two, and recent results all but suggested the Italian’s victory.
To see Medvedev utilize serve volleys and be aggressive in rallies and often being the first one to come up to the net was a pleasant surprise but one that also positively helped his game. However, the lack of consistency in utilizing these changes and implementing other variations in his game meant that not just the best players in the world, but more players outside the top 10 and 20 started to significantly hurt Medvedev this year.
The poor run of results from Medvedev has meant that since May 2023 when he last won an ATP Tour title at the Rome Masters 1000, he has played 5 finals and lost all of them; 3 finals to Sinner, one a piece to Djokovic and Alcaraz. For Medvedev to change his fortunes, he has to find solutions to tackle the best players in the world and bring variations in his game which can help him regain his form and challenge for grand slam titles once again.
2025: Daniil Medvedev. I am watching.
Novak Djokovic
If somebody told Novak Djokovic at the beginning of the year that he would not win any grand slam titles, not win any Masters 1000 titles, and would not win any title all year but the Olympic gold medal, he would have taken the deal. Makes total sense.
Djokovic is a 3-time career-slam holder, is the only player in history to win every Masters 1000 title 2 or more times, has the most no. of slams and Masters 1000 titles, most weeks at World no. 1, and has an endless list of other achievements in his resume. What he didn’t have at the turn of 2024 was: an Olympic gold medal.
He won it this year and won after defeating en route not only his greatest rival ever, but also by defeating massive favorite Carlos Alcaraz in straight sets in the final, to whom he had lost a 2nd consecutive Wimbledon final a month ago in straight sets.
It was the victory that was heard around the world. Before the 4th of August 2024, the debate for the greatest men’s player on the tour was pretty much muted due to the total sweep by Djokovic of every big tennis statistic known to mankind. One achievement though, that remained out of grasp from the great Serbian was an Olympic gold. After coming agonizingly close to completing his Olympic dream at Tokyo 2020, Djokovic was determined, relentless in his pursuit, and most of all, locked in to complete tennis once and for all.
In what I consider to be the match of the year, Novak Djokovic with a strap on his right knee, for 2 hours and 50 minutes battled Alcaraz as if though he had not been the same man who was obliterated just a month before by the same adversary.
After almost 3 hours on the red clay with the sun overlooking the Phillipe Chatrier, Djokovic buried Alcaraz with a ground stroke forehand winner which will go down in the history books as the shot which upgraded the status of the greatest player in tennis history to a demigod.
Watching Djokovic play after his Olympic triumph was like watching a 1980s Ford Escort on the streets, the once best-selling car which while retains its aura, is now out of gas.
While Djokovic hunted the last of his original glory moments, he saw his old-time rivals and pals retire left and right. Dominic Thiem retired from the sport after suffering a continuous string of poor results which plagued him ever since his wrist injury in 2021. Andy Murray called on his time this year along with Rafael Nadal who played his last official tennis match for his country at the Davis Cup finals in Malaga, Spain.
With Roger already retired and with two of the other Big-4 rivals calling their time in 2024, it remains no mystery to anybody that Djokovic will in due time, call it quits too. For all his exploits on the ATP Tour for 2 decades, there remains nothing to be won anymore that is worthy of his time and physical energy.
At 37 years old, it is now not the question of “if” but “when” Djokovic retires. For now, though, he has paired up with Andy Murray to sit in his box and coach him at the Australian Open 2025.
2025: Novak Djokovic. A long-time fan will be watching without expectations.
The Big-2 and others
Sinner and Alcaraz split the 2024 grand slams between themselves. While Sinner became the first man in history to take out Djokovic in an Australian Open semifinal, Alcaraz defeated Djokovic for a 2nd consecutive time to clinch Wimbledon. He also won his first Roland Garros title after denying Zverev in 5 sets, while Sinner won the US Open and the Nitto ATP Finals to end the year as the world no. 1.
In the big tournaments in 2024 (Grand Slams + Masters 1000), Sinner and Alcaraz became routine names. In the 2010s, when the Big-3 and the Big-4 routinely featured in the semifinals and finals of all major tournaments and gate-kept all the titles for themselves, it was astonishing to witness the firepower and skill gap between them and the rest of the tour.
Something similar has started to take shape in the current setup of the tour as well. While there is no clear 3rd and 4th wheel, Sinner and Alcaraz seem to be content with making gains among themselves. And while their rivalry will entertain fans for the coming decade, the gap between them and the rest of the tour is widening at an increasing pace. Alcaraz already sits on 4 slam titles, while Sinner made big gains in 2024 winning 2 of the available 4.
For a pair that is relatively younger than the current top 10, Sinner 23, and Alcaraz 21, they have also started to widen the gap not just with age but with titles won as well. In the current top 10, apart from Djokovic, Sinner and Alcaraz (2+4) have more slam titles than the rest combined (Medvedev-1).
One can hope that the playing field will turn out to be more competitive in 2025, which looks likely considering Zverev and Fritz attained their career-high rankings this year. If both of them stop canceling each other out and focus on improving their overall game against the top 5 in the world, we can witness some interesting matches and results in the upcoming season.
Age is on the side of Sinner and Alcaraz and thus they would feel confident of continuing their run of success. Unless more of the current top-10 make headway, the pair looks clear to dominate the tour going forward. I expect more young players to make their runs into the top 10, namely Jack Draper (career-high 15) and Holger Rune (13). Among other strong contenders include Lorenzo Musetti (17), Arthur Fils (career-high 20), and Jiří Lehečka (28).
In brief, though, Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz look miles clear of their competition right now, and with the vacations coming to an end and the Australian Open around the corner, we may once again expect to see similar faces on the podium unless some of the aforementioned players or surprise entrants can show what gains they have made in the off-season.
Predictions for the 2025 ATP Season
This year I didn’t make any predictions for the tennis calendar. I was mostly focused on following the sport rather than writing and thus didn’t come up with my usual prediction post before the Australian Open. This time though, things are different, and thus here are my predictions for tennis calendar 2025.
- Novak Djokovic will win the Australian Open. This prediction has more to do with my faith in the former world. No 1. He has played no tennis since early October apart from his exhibition match with Juan Martín del Potro, another legend who bid farewell to tennis after winning 6-4, 7-5 and embracing Djokovic at the net with both in tears. Djokovic thus has had an extended off-season and now with Andy Murray in his corner, I expect him to start the year with vigor to capture his 25th slam. As a counter-put, I don’t see anybody other than Sinner winning in Melbourne once again.
- Alexander Zverev will win Roland Garros or a slam title. As mentioned before, 2025 should be Zverev’s hunting year after making big gains in 2024. Fully expect him to capture a slam title, preferably on the red clay at Phillipe Chatrier.
- Jannik Sinner will win Wimbledon. About time he wins the biggest slam title in all of tennis. Alcaraz is a 2-time defending champion and grass seems to suit his natural game, but Sinner looks better suited to convert his hard court performances on grass.
- Taylor Fritz will win his home slam, the US Open. Fritz made big gains this year attaining his career-high ranking and making final runs at the US Open and the year-ending Nitto ATP Finals. I expect Fritz to remain in contention for a slam title this year and become the first American man since Andy Roddick in 2003 to win one.
Apart from the slams, here are some of my predictions based on intuition alone.
- Daniil Medvedev to win a slam/multiple Masters 1000 titles.
- Holger Rune to re-enter the top 10/win another Masters 1000 title/make multiple deep runs at slams.
- Jack Draper to win a Masters 1000 title/make a deep run at a slam/enter the top 10.
- Stefanos Tsitsipas to win a clay Masters 1000 title/go deep at Roland Garros.
- Casper Ruud is to play another slam final/make a serious deep run at Wimbledon.
It was a great year for tennis fans like me and I expect more of the same in the upcoming season. Tennis seemed to have been in a transition phase for the past 2 seasons, which now looks to have been completed. I expect more intense matches, new rivalries, and new champions.
I wish everyone happy holidays and a happy new year.
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